Consoles to “die out” in the next 5 to 10 years |
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BY Rain Anderson Mar. 27th, 2008 |
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The man who set up and ran the European Xbox business for Microsoft, Sandy Duncan, believes that consoles as we know them today will “die out” in the next 5 to 10 years.
“The industry is fundamentally driven by technology. I think dedicated games devices i.e. consoles (and handhelds) will die [out] in the next 5 to 10 years. The business model is very risky and the costs associated with creating new hardware are incredibly high,” Duncan told That VideoGame Blog in an interview to be published tomorrow.
He continued, “There is a definite “convergence” of other devices such as set top boxes. There’s hardly any technology difference between some hard disc video recorders and an Xbox 360 for example. In fact in 5 to 10 years I don’t think you’ll have any box at all under your TV, most of this stuff will be “virtualized” as web services by your content provider.”
Duncan also believes that with the rapid rise of high-speed internet connections, and as game publishers are forced to adjust their business models, top publishers like EA may not be the same companies in 5 years time: “[Look] at how quickly Popcap or Oberon are growing, or look at what has happened to World of Warcraft in the last 3 to 4 years as so many more homes have easy access to decent broadband services. Maybe you’ll see YoYo Games competing with EA in 5 years… [and] why not ?”
“Tying this thinking together I think that the concept of “Cloud Computing” when applied to games, and to MMORGS in particular is potentially pretty mind-blowing. If you look at the number of nodes, cumulative raw compute power, total storage etc. of just the people playing on Xbox Live at any one time, combined with very high bandwidth connectivity and add to that potentially millions of people playing on their mobile devices added to the cloud… then I think it might be time for the Blue Pill/Red Pill discussion and I’ll jump out of my skin if someone calls me up and says “Hello Sandy, my name is Morpheus!””
Duncan was with Microsoft for over 15 years before moving on to found YoYo Games with Michel Cassius. Check back tomorrow for the full second part (read Part I here) of our interview with Duncan where he goes in-depth about EA’s attempts to acquire Take-Two, the recent mergers in general, the rise of casual gaming, and where he thinks the industry is headed.
Full interview now live: Interview / YoYo Games CEO Sandy Duncan (Part II)
March 27th, 2008
at 11:36 pm
I think game consoles will get more and more like PC’s, but I think there will always be a market for the dedicated home game console… at least I hope…
March 27th, 2008
at 11:44 pm
Consoles die out? Thats a hard thought to swallow. Although I do agree that some things on PC are growing out of control (*Cough* WoW *Cough*), I still think that consoles will always have a place in homes. Mostly because I really don’t want to upgrade my computer every year to keep up with the constant updated games. The PS3 or 360 means just one large shell out of cash that lasts you about 5-6 years. Heck, I’m still playing my PS2 and I can’t remember when that came out.
March 28th, 2008
at 12:17 am
I know this is weird to say, but I love when consoles die out. For one, there must be something better on the market for gamers to buy, and every game for something like the Xbox 360 goes for so cheap. Just as the Nintedno 64 went out, there were so many games that went from 30 or 40 dollars down to five. I love these concoles, but I am not sorry to see them go.
March 28th, 2008
at 12:44 am
I seriously doubt that consoles will be six feet under in five to ten years time, there may be some changes like Microsoft gets out and Sega jumps back in, or something even more strange. I wou presume, as most should, that the big three are already in the process of working out their next-gen consoles. But I wish this guy luck on becoming a direct competitor with EA though :)
March 28th, 2008
at 1:21 am
Yea, in 10 years time my DVDs, GAMES and other disc based technology can go on the shelf with those things that are there already…what are they called? oh yea, books! because eBooks have taken over the world!, we don’t need real books anymore! yay!!!! what?
So basically they said the same thing with books and that internet books or eBooks would take over and that there would not be a need for paper books anymroe, yea right.
March 28th, 2008
at 1:32 am
This dude is right about what will happen, but I think his time frame is off by about 10 years. This is not going to happen all that soon. The disk space is there, but the infrastructure to deal with the bandwidth requirements is not. That’s an expensive proposition.
March 28th, 2008
at 3:47 am
I don’t think game consoles will disappear. They won’t be like we remember them, they will be more like media centers for all your entertainment.
March 28th, 2008
at 4:19 am
I think Matt has it right, things are just going to evolve into what works well as the more advanced technology comes into play.
March 28th, 2008
at 7:14 am
just look at the price of a decent gaming pc, 600 bucks and you have to build it yourself. then look at the price of the most advanced gaming console ever 400 bucks. i dont think set top boxes work for games because the initial price for the box is too high for consumers.
March 28th, 2008
at 8:09 am
That’s why he’s an EX employee.
March 28th, 2008
at 11:01 am
painz - good one!
March 28th, 2008
at 12:00 pm
What’s funny is Microsoft put put an article on MSNBC just yesterday that said PC-Gaming would be dead and gone in 10 years!
March 28th, 2008
at 1:56 pm
I don’t think either’s going to ‘disappear’ - it’s going to be more of a hybridization of PCs and consoles… and become one unit, which will become self aware and destroy us all.
March 28th, 2008
at 3:42 pm
I dont really agree. I think consoles will be around for a long time. I hate computer gaming and absolutly love my 360. I hate that is has had the rrod 4 times and im on my 5th 360 but i love the 360 and i dont think i want machine that does everything because if one thing breaks your stuck with a box that can only do some things. I like all my electroincs to be seperate devices. I think well get a hybrid of sorts of gaming on web browsing and the live experience will just be that much better. Im sorry sony but ps3 will die! No good games, and homenetwork will never come close to xboxlive
March 28th, 2008
at 3:52 pm
Hahaha, the old Microsoft “WebTV” mantra…
March 28th, 2008
at 3:59 pm
This is a “Pipe Dream” at best. We don’t even have any decent HD delivery system for TV let alone the bandwidth to handle the newer HD heavy games coming shortly. Why waste your time making these stupid statements. Why not talk about ending war and famine while your at it.
March 28th, 2008
at 5:02 pm
It’s like 1986 all over again.. LAWL
Him and Clifford Stoll can have a couple of laughs
http://www.newsweek.com/id/106554
March 29th, 2008
at 11:08 am
I’m intrigued by the responses to this article. I’d like to stress that the timeline is 5 to 10 years…frankly I don’t think anyone, even Miyamoto-san could accurately predict what will happen.
BUT there’s no doubt that the console business model is very stressed. Microsoft have lost billions developing Xbox and I can’t see them continuing to lose money indefinitely. Sony have similar issues with Playstation 3, which only leaves Nintendo (with a comparatively low tech offering) making money (still mostly from publishing, my guess is the Wii is at best a break even business for them) in the current round of technology. If I had to place a bet I can’t see another major generation of consoles being developed unless the enormous development cost can be offset with content other than games…so convergence is inevitable.
Finally I would argue more tenuously that ALL of the innovation and excitement in games is happening online ….anyone taken a look at InstantAction for example ? Also, the demos I’ve seen of Augmented Reality games are really exciting, but they potentially need massive compute power…hence my thoughts that “Cloud Computing” will possibly have more influence over the future of games than any other technology.
March 29th, 2008
at 2:52 pm
Sandy, I agree with you generally but have to disagree with the following points:
“There’s hardly any technology difference between some hard disc video recorders and an Xbox 360 for example.”
Yes, they both are computers, but the GPU in the XBox is an order of magnitude more advanced than any video chip in DVRs. This may be mitigated in the time frame you are talking about with the melding of GPU cores with CPU cores.
“Finally I would argue more tenuously that ALL of the innovation and excitement in games is happening online ….anyone taken a look at InstantAction for example ?”
All? Even though I would I would only recommend 2 games for the system (Wii Sports and Super Mario Galaxies), you have to admit the Wii controller was one of the biggest innovations in years.
Some Nintendo fan boys might disagree with me, but Xbox Live is just as innovative (and I don’t even own an XBox yet). I have yet to see any online/cloud communities as well integrated and slick. Kongregate is a step in the right direction. If Microsoft ever gets XNA and Live to work on Silverlight, *watch out*.
Finally, I agree with Pete. Until there is fiber in the home, content delivery will just not be fast enough to distribute high fidelity games with the massive amount of art assets used in engines like id Tech 5.
March 29th, 2008
at 4:29 pm
Nah, the Wii is a profitable hardware play. Microsoft has been pushing for the death of the console since I can remember so it can push the PC into the living room so as to spread some form of Windows into it. The XBox is a result of that failed dream to do so and thus far, has only negative margins to show for it (until Halo 3, from what I understand). Another argument among many utilizing flawed reasoning that technology is the sole driver of change (where’s that electric car again?)
March 30th, 2008
at 6:02 am
Lol, the 360 in the picture has the red rings of death. XD Oh the irony.
March 30th, 2008
at 10:10 am
This would be horrible, afterall a large sum of the people who play video-games are complete idiot’s when it comes to real life things, so god help us all if they have to move to somewhere else in the spectrum of things. Especially if those same people are the one’s who help run sites like 4chan, ED, or Ebaums. God, I hope the next world war is soon.
March 30th, 2008
at 11:51 am
You make a good point Sandy, no one is really talking about whether or not throughout the whole picture (R&D and all other costs), the big 3 will even be able to recoup their investment. If they aren’t able to break even then I think the *chance* of consoles to “die out” is a real one.
March 30th, 2008
at 11:50 pm
Your always going to need hardware at home for realtime games as they require a low response time.
The cloud computing model could work, if theres an incentive. Like a developer could upload you extra cars if you upload some computed results to them.
March 31st, 2008
at 2:35 pm
Consoles are just a very intentional computer. Its no different than a server being a computer intended for just that, being a server. So to put the console to rest would mean taking the computing power out of the home. That being said, broadband infrastructure is lightyears away from being able to support computing out of the home. If the US Gov’t has anything to do with it, it will take at least twice what it should take to get there.
Consoles are due for a revolution, but not death by any means. Widespread online play is relatively new in the lifespan of gaming and I would qualify that as revolutionary. The Wii is revolutionary as well. My mom and sister are now playing games…for the first time ever.
Why is it that in gaming culture that saying radical things and being first to say it is so desirable?
This statement is somewhat ludicrous in my opinion. Its electronics, the model is proven…saturate the market, release new and improved, repeat.
April 1st, 2008
at 10:44 am
Uhm,… Which GameConsole is now pure a GameConsole. I got a PS3,… It plays DVD, Blu-Ray, Music, MP3, shows my Pictures on TV and stream movies, music and pictures from my PC. next to that I can surf the internet and watch things like youtube movies. And I can Cam-chat with friend in Holland while I´m in Spain…
Also this X360 and Wii don´t play only games. They too have downloadable content and do more then just play games,….
So In my eye,…. We are already there. Days of a Sega or NES (SNES) is already history.
maybe he still has the M$ / Xbox bugg in his body,… you know,… the one where they have no Idea what they are really doing or talking about,….
April 3rd, 2008
at 5:58 am
I think Morgs is correctly pointing out maybe the ONLY argument against the idea of cloud computing for games (the response time), and it’s only technical, so it may very well be resolved. Cloud computing is actually an ideal solution for gaming, since gaming, almost by definition, doesn’t require high security (the fundamental gap in the cloud model.) Besides that (the response time) there are no disadvantages. You no longer have to worry about console exclusives or the comparitive downsides of your own system (face it, all systems have them.) Instead, you could be assured you’re getting the highest-end gameplay for every game you play. One other issue is the concept of a controller. But hopefully all games will (like Smash Bros. Brawl) support multiple different controller inputs. Maybe then everyone could stop focusing so much on the hardware used to present the game, and focus more on the game itself.
April 6th, 2008
at 8:15 pm
Cloud computing is an interesting idea… although, can it handle 20,000 people playing crysis as well as the other 100,000 people playing other games? all at the same time? Will companies like microsoft, sony, and nintendo REALLY pay for that many machines and that much bandwidth? What about the time that it takes for information to be sent halfway accross the world? (does this mean that those companies will have to make cloud computing centers in every country to make up for the potential response time horror?) How will they deal with the games that use up 50 gigabytes? Is every machine in the cloud technically running every single game at the same time?
I guess the solution to some of those problems is to make every “console” run all the time like a ps3 does. But, it still doesn’t seem realistic. Why have your machine run to play another person’s game when you could be running it to play your own?
April 30th, 2008
at 2:01 pm
If you look at the casual gamer range, those people like to get a console with no update required, cause some of them dont want to pay more, over time, and makes it easier for casual. But for real gamers, thats something different… That is the main advantage for the console to do not die out. (my opinion) :)
June 28th, 2008
at 11:40 am
I think it is only the companies that focus on powerhouse hardware that suffer from making consoles. Nintendo’s focus is on innovation, not expensive high-tech hardware that costs more for them to make than they can sell it for. As a result, Nintendo is making a lot of money from its console right now - and Microsoft and Sony are not. That said, there will always be a large portion of gamers that demand vast technological (graphics, processing, and now improved internet play/features) improvements over the last generation of consoles. That’s a tough game for a company to choose to take part in, though. Gamers demand something they aren’t willing to pay for. The price is very high for the hardware to make those desires possible.
Nintendo, however, is an odd beast indeed. I’m only being semi-serious, but I think they’d be plenty profitable without any third party support at all…they seem to be great at selling their own stuff - and with a profit. And almost every great game for the Wii is a Nintendo game. It’s scary and beautiful at the same time. It is just funny how successful they are completely through efforts of their own.
Anyway, I think that at least when it comes to Nintendo, consoles will be around for a while, because Nintendo focuses on innovation and mass appeal instead of the expensive powerhouse approaches of its competitors, which keeps costs down and lets them make a profit. And boy do their products *sell*, despite not being super-duper-turbo-charged eye candy generators.
And another thing that will likely always be around is handhelds. Why would anyone think there wouldn’t always be a desire for on-the-go portable and convenient gaming? Don’t count handheld “consoles” out. And to prove my point that the problem with consoles is actually technological ambition yet again, the DS is the least technological advanced one of them all…technically. ;) Yet it is the king of all the gaming “systems.” That is if sales mean anything anymore. =P
July 6th, 2008
at 12:25 am
I dont really think this will happen. If you look atthe Wii, its grabbed a new target audiance. With that in mind, it shows gaming can reach others, not just the sterotypes.
http://WWW.reabo.co.uk
August 3rd, 2008
at 6:21 pm
anybody heard any rumors on what the next gaming system is going to be?
August 7th, 2008
at 4:42 pm
Say it ain’t so. I’m not a total believer this will happen either.
August 29th, 2008
at 6:53 pm
Dying out any time soon? No way - ain’t gonna happen.
December 11th, 2008
at 7:22 pm
So to those who have doubts because of bandwidth issues, I direct your eyes to the TV. If you don’t see a comcast commercial within the next hour or so then you are probably in the wrong area and should look up their services. They are releasing a 50mbps connection this month to areas on the west coast. I would presume that as quickly as high speed showed up and moved in is as quickly as this service will spread. Which means that 5-10 years is easily a good estimate if they haven’t already been working hard at it. 50mbps converts to nearly 6.25MBps in my case I already download at about 1MBps and I downloaded a game last night that was a little over 3GBs in about an hour.
However I’d in support of the PC, it’s true the game consoles are providing a variety of services but I get the same services and more with my PC and can hook it up to HDMI on an HDTV and if I really want it to be like a console. Point is, I think consoles are only around because themanufacturers produce more console based games than PC games due to piracy issues.
January 1st, 2009
at 11:50 pm
I have a forum http://www.theredforum.in-goo.net and it’s mostly about games on the consoles so if they die out i’m screwed.