Speaking with Gamasutra, Janco Partners’ Mike Hickey makes a bold prediction when he estimates that Modern Warfare 2 will be a great selling game. Sarcasm aside, he predicts the game will topple 11.1 million units within 2009 alone with a first day topping $338 million. To put that in perspective, Halo 3 took an entire week to reach $300 million. He arrives at these figures by looking at the original Modern Warfare‘s attachment rate when it was released compared to the considerably larger install base of 360s and PS3s for the sequel’s fall release.
“Given our CY09 sell through estimates for Modern Warfare 2, it’s possible that the game could be one of the largest entertainment releases of all time [which Activision believes it will be]. If you assume similar channel unit sales velocity as GTA IV, the game could potentially sell through 7.8 million units globally with an estimated retail value of more than $569 million in the first week,” says Hickey. Mighty impressive if it all pans out.
You can check out the full article for more attach rate speak and percentiles and market trend predictions. As for me, I’m waiting with bated breath for Michael Pac-Man Pachter’s predictions on the subject.