Analyst says DJ Hero preorder activity weak, reduces sales estimates

DJ Hero is set to be released tomorrow, but according to analyst Doug Creutz, the buzz behind the game is barely audible. After checking retail figures on preorders, Creutz is adjusting his initial predictions of DJ Hero sales. “On DJ Hero, despite some recent positive comments from company management about pre-orders, we remain very cautious about the title’s prospects at launch,” Creutz said. “A survey of online retailers indicates a demand profile that is well below what we would have expected to see just a few days before launch for a title that was destined to be a big (or even modest) hit. As a result, we are reducing our estimate for DJ Hero Q4 US unit sales from 1.6 million to 600,000, and we are reducing our first year estimate from 2.5 million to 950,000.”

For those of you counting at home, that’s more than a 50% decrease in sales estimates for the turntable simulator. Activision isn’t expecting an overnight success with DJ Hero either, with Guitar Hero co-founder Kai Huang predicting the title “to be the type of game that may come out of the gate a little bit slower, but continue to grow over time.”

Turntables aren’t as instantly recognizable or relatable as guitars or drums. Both Activision and Creutz acknowledge this, which translates to modest expectations. Does that mean modest sales are soon to follow? We’ll find out soon enough when DJ Hero comes out tomorrow.