Natal will cost more than $50, DSi XL will be a failure, says analyst

Industry analyst Michael Pachter has backed away from his statement that Microsoft’s motion sensing doodad Project Natal will cost $50.

“I probably aimed too low with my $50 Natal comment, as I’m sure that consumers will come to believe that the product and software has a lot of value,” Pachter told Industry Gamers. “That means to me that Microsoft may try to price higher than I guessed on the Pach Attack segment.

“Regardless, if consumers think that Microsoft is providing a lot of value with Natal, it could be priced higher.”

Pachter also went on to opine on the impact that both Microsoft’s Natal and Sony’s motion controller will have on the market. “I don’t see either expanding the GAMING audience, but do see them expanding the user base beyond the core gamer in the household,” he said.

“I do not expect the multi-user household to buy a significantly higher number of games, but think that once these other household members are introduced to the PS3 and 360, they may begin to enjoy the many features of each, and are more likely to justify movie downloads, joining Netflix, or whatever is planned in the future, as the consoles are more approachable with motion controls.”

Elsewhere in the interview, the Wedbush analyst also said why he thinks that Nintendo’s new DSi XL will be a failure. “I think that the price point of all DS products are too high, and think that a price increase for the DSi XL is not going to sit well with consumers.

“The difference in price between the DS Lite and the XL is $60, and I’m not sure that bigger screens provide the value that Nintendo thinks. The difference between the DSi and the XL makes sense, but all three models are due for a cut, the DS to around $99, the DSi to $129, and the XL would then make more sense at $149. I don’t think it will be a success at launch, since it costs only $10 less than a Wii.”

So, generally speaking, Pachter’s current take on the industry is that its products are overpriced. Business as usual then.