Some days, it seems like Michael Pachter has the easiest job ever. All he has to do is look for patterns in numbers, and then say what he thinks that pattern is. He doesn’t even really have to be right all the time, he just has to make an educated guess. Somehow, the right people at the right moments in time decided that his guesses were worth a lot of money to the right investors, so now he just guesses and predicts things about the videogame industry for a living. I know there’s a lot that goes into it, and I’m probably not doing the profession justice, but sometimes, those guesses are so obscenely safe, like saying that StarCraft II will sell around 4 – 5 million copies relatively quickly, that it’s hard not to judge.
Acknowledging that the PC gaming market isn’t nearly as large as on consoles, the Wedbush analyst says that there is clearly a market when you see that there are 12 million people playing World of Warcraft, and that the first StarCraft has sold 9 million copies with around a third of that still playing online daily. “So, on Starcraft II I think that they will sell around 4-5 million units quickly and I think that they will sell 9-10 million units eventually. I think the game will have a very long online multiplayer life.”
He goes on to predict similar results for Diablo III, whenever that will come.
Pachter’s predictions will very likely come about at the game’s release on July 27.