Analyst: Kinect to sell 4m in 2010, $99 still the “sweet spot”

Lazard Capital analyst Colin Sebastian has previously predicted that Kinect would sell about 3 million units this holiday season. Sales of that level are no small feat but he now estimates worldwide sales could exceed the previous expectation, and instead climb to 4 million before year’s end.

While doing channel checks, productions efforts have apparently increased, leading Sebastian to believe that Microsoft is set to have “potentially more aggressive launch plans for the device” than previously expected.

“Specifically, our checks indicate that the Kinect build is on a pace of ~2M units per month and we now believe that the mix of Xbox 360 shipments for the holidays will be more heavily weighted toward the Kinect bundle,” says Sebastian. “While launching at $149 as a stand-alone device, we believe the better value is the Xbox 360 bundle for $299.”

Sebastian adds that the company continues to hold $99 as the “sweet spot” for Kinect pricing, but the quantity being produced could suggest that Microsoft could be leaving the door open for price promotions in the future.

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