Up to 20% of COD players to use Elite — analyst

Here’s some timely analyst speculation about Call of Duty Elite, the Call of Duty add-on service formalized and detailed yesterday.

According to EEDAR man Jesse Divnich, Activision can expect to attract 1.5 million subscribers by the end of calendar 2011, and 2-4 million within the first year.

Basing his guess on “current surveys and market research,” Divnich tells IG that Elite could achieve “10 to 20% penetration among Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 purchasers.”

“This likely translates into about 2 to 4 million subscribers after 12 months and likely 1.5 million subscribers by the end of 2011. We suspect that the subscription price will range in the $4.99 area.

“It is critical, however, that CoD MW3 achieves critical acclaim as the bulk of subscribers are likely to come from the core gaming community, where review scores can have incredible influence. While this wouldn’t have been a factor in prior years, as CoD has faced little competition, the release of Battlefield 3 could prove to be a thorn in CoD’s side.”

Elite will launch in full on November 8, 2011 along with Modern Warfare 3. A beta will take place this summer, the registrations for which are now open. More on the whole thing here.