Analyst expects 18 million in GTA5 sales

Michael Pachter, an analyst at Wedbush Securities has revealed his expectations for the sales of Gran Theft Auto V, a game that is yet to be revealed.

Pachter stated in an investor’s note (via Industry Gamers): “We expect the next Grand Theft Auto to sell at least 18 million units, representing a 20% attach rate to the estimated 2011 year-end installed base of PS3 and Xbox 360 in the U.S. and Europe. At this level, we estimate that Grand Theft Auto will generate at least $2.65/share in incremental EPS, making Take-Two’s forecast of ‘in excess’ of $2.00 per share in earnings during FY:13 easily attainable.

“Should the game sell 24 million units (in line with its historical attach rate), we expect contribution of more than $4.00 per share in incremental EPS. Importantly, the company has a history of providing conservative guidance, and without a GTA game in FY:13, we would not expect management to be so bold as to guide to earnings over $2.00.”

A 24 million figure isn’t something we hear much these days, even with Activision’s super-successful Call of Duty series. We know it will sell though; the question is when will it be revealed?

As for Rockstar itself, the company just posted some rather favorable results for the sales of its other two IPs: Red Dead Redemption and L.A. Noire.