Analyst reasons Call of Duty sales drop

Modern Warfare 3 was yet another thunderously successful launch for the Call of Duty franchise, but it’s been suggested that the game’s lifetime sales won’t match half that of 2010’s effort, Call of Duty: Black Ops.

That’s what analyst Michael Olson of PiperJaffray thinks. Pointing to Activision’s mega-franchise as an example of big games failing to sell, he told Gamasutra: “We believe big name titles are no longer able to sustain ‘fat tails.’

“This ‘thinning tail’ phenomenon is driven by 1) casual gamers leaving the market, 2) a steeper pre-sale and up-front curve, and 3) cannibalisation from the pre-owned market.”

He cited MW3‘s eighth place position in March’s software charts compared to Black Ops‘ fifth in 2011 as proof. Could 2012’s Call of Duty see a even more significant decrease?