Modern Warfare 2 to sell 17-18 million in 12 months, analyst predicts

While he doesn’t believe Infinity Ward’s Modern Warfare 2 will become the biggest selling game ever, Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter predicts it will sell through 14 million copies in the holiday quarter this year, and 17 to 18 million in its first year.

“Last year sold about 8 million in the Christmas quarter, I think most people think this will do 10-12. It really depends on marketing — if they blitz the airwaves and we see ads on every basketball game, football game, college football game, every beauty pageant … maybe 14,” Pachter said in the latest episode of GT’s Bonus Round. “And how many will it sell in a 12-month period? Maybe 17 or 18 … but over 20 million, that’s just hard to do.”

“If we penetrate 25% of 360 and PS3 owners, we’re only talking about 12 million units, that’s the problem. So for this thing to do more, it’s gotta have a better attach rate than GTA San Andreas did. That’s likely, but double the attach rate? No way.”